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The Monthly Freight Briefing · October 2026
How to read this briefing. Most freight data runs a month behind, so September is explained with the August figures released at month end.
The 60-second version
- Reliability is the story. Only 49.9% of container ships arrived on time in August, the worst since September 2022, and late ships were almost a week late.
- Demand did not fall over. World volumes were flat, Los Angeles had its busiest June to August ever, and Long Beach had a record August.
- Ships are stuck, not missing. About 4 million TEU of capacity is tied up in port congestion, and carriers are calling at fewer ports with fuller ships.
- October risk sits on Asia to US. Almost two thirds of the sailings carriers plan to cancel before 1 November are on the Transpacific, and rail dwell at LA/Long Beach is the longest in a year.
- Costs outside ocean are up. Air rates are about a fifth above last year, refrigerated trucking is tight, and diesel only came off record highs in late September.
Where prices are heading
The ships exist. Too many of them are stuck.
What this means: this is a reliability and lead-time problem. The cost shows up as missed delivery windows, extra safety stock and detention charges.
Only about 0.6% of the fleet was idle in late August (Alphaliner). The capacity shortfall came from ships stuck at ports: DHL and Linerlytica put about 4 million TEU in congestion, around 12% of effective capacity and close to the 2022 peak. Three things caused it. Typhoons closed China's east coast ports for days at a time, so ships queued and then arrived together. Hormuz is shut to container ships, so services were rerouted through Indian and South East Asian ports that were not planned for them. And most Asia to Europe services still go round Africa, so each ship makes fewer round trips and there is less slack anywhere in the network.
Underneath that, carriers are running a thinner network. Across 40 major ports, calls fell 12.6% on a year earlier while cargo per call rose 7.7% (IMF PortWatch). Fewer, fuller ships work well when they run to plan. When one slips, more of your freight slips with it, and it all lands at once.
Volumes held. World container throughput was flat in August (RWI/ISL), and US gateways were normal to record. The result was a second monthly fall in schedule reliability, to 49.9% (Sea-Intelligence GLP issue 181), with late ships 6.81 days behind.
Put the 6.81 days into dollars
With the example figures, about $360,000 of goods arrives each day, so covering the full delay ties up about $2.5 million, costing close to $500,000 a year to hold. Covering half still ties up about $1.2 million.
Cancelled sailings at sea, long waits on land
What this means: hold a fallback sailing for anything time-critical before early November, and check free time on containers moving inland by rail. Softer spot prices do not mean lower risk.
Carriers cancel sailings as the peak fades, to take capacity out and support prices. Drewry expects 58 of 712 sailings to be blanked between 28 September and 1 November, and 64% of those, about 37 sailings, are Asia to US.
On land, fuller ships discharging together have pushed the bottleneck inland. Rail-bound containers at LA and Long Beach sat 6.75 days in August, the longest in a year, while truck-bound boxes held at 2.95 days (PMSA). The Intermodal Association of North America says drayage capacity has been sharply curtailed, California diesel passed $8 a gallon in mid September, and Long Beach expects heavy volume into early November. That is where demurrage and detention start: the ship can be on time and you still pay.
For the East Coast, Panama is easing: Neopanamax draft is back to 49 feet and slots rise to 10 a day from 15 October (Panama Canal Authority). Hormuz stays shut to containers, and the Cape still carries more ships than Suez.
Beyond the ship
Food and beverage. A week-late ship followed by a week waiting for rail can take two weeks out of a product's shelf life. Refrigerated trucking is tight, with far more loads than trucks: DAT's load-to-truck ratio was more than double the five-year average in August. Certain Canadian dairy and alcohol products now carry an extra 50% duty (from 22 August), and some are banned from 29 September (GHY International).
Air. If ocean delays tempt you to fly, check the price first. Air demand rose 4.4% in August and 13.2% on Asia to North America (IATA), rates are about a fifth above last year, and jet fuel is up 79%.
Trucking. US truck shipments rose 2.1% on a year earlier in August, the first gain since January 2023, though Cass is cautious about calling a recovery.
Policy. The US–China truce runs to 10 January 2027, but the pause on US fees for China-linked ships expires on 9 November unless the US Trade Representative extends it. A Chinese-owned ship pays $50 per net ton per voyage, around $2.5 million a trip for a large ship. Until an extension is published, expect carriers to plan for a surcharge.
Five questions for your team
- What was our on-time performance in August, by carrier and lane? Compare it with the 49.9% global figure.
- Which Asia to US bookings sail before early November, and what is the fallback for each? That is where the cancellations fall.
- Is safety stock set on average transit time or on the spread? Run our numbers through the calculator and take the result to finance.
- How much free time do our rail-bound containers at LA/Long Beach have left? Rail dwell is the longest in a year.
- At renewal, are we buying frequency and options, or just the lowest rate? The order book is about 42% of the fleet (BIMCO), so keep 2027 contracts flexible.
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