In Numbers: The Impact of the Red Sea Crisis on European & Asian Port Congestion

With nearly all large container vessels on Asia-Europe services electing to divert around the Cape of Good Hope, many expected vessel bunching and port congestion to worsen following the onset of the Red Sea crisis last November. 

While it is impossible to completely isolate the impact of the Red Sea crisis from other disruptive events, an analysis of average vessel waiting (anchor) times at ten major European and Asian ports over the past 12 months makes it clear that the crisis has indeed had a material impact on congestion levels. However, the impact has not been uniformly felt. 

Analyzed major European ports saw average anchor times increase to 7.0 hours between November 2023 and October 2024, an increase of 62% from the same period a year prior. In Asia, major ports saw average wait times increase to 9.4 hours, a 45% increase from 6.5 a year prior.

Methodology 

To analyze the impact of the crisis on port congestion, average anchor times in each of the 12 months since the onset of the crisis in November 2023 were compared against the same month a year prior. For example, January 2024 wait times were compared to January 2023, and the difference was calculated to understand how much worse (or better) congestion was in that month. 

Comparing congestion levels against the same period the prior year helps to ensure that seasonal variations associated with higher shipping volumes at certain times of the year do not skew the analysis.  

While congestion in a given month may be impacted by acute disruptive events such as extreme weather or labor action, examining the excess congestion trend for each port across the full 12 month period can help to identify the overall impact of the crisis.

European Ports 

In 2023, vessel anchor (waiting) times in Rotterdam, Europe’s busiest port, averaged 2.6 hours. Through the first ten months of 2024, wait times have nearly doubled to an average of 5.0 hours. Average anchor times were higher in each of the past twelve months since the onset of the crisis compared to a year prior, with December 2023 (+4.7 hours) and March 2024 (+4.3 hours) showing the biggest increases. The increase has been felt uniformly across the year, with most months showing a three to four hour deterioration.

From November 2023 through to April 2024, Hamburg managed to absorb the impact of the Red Sea crisis with little impact on operations. No month during this six month period saw average wait times worsen by more than half an hour when compared against the same period in the prior year. The port has, however, struggled since May with average anchor times averaging 3.8 hours worse than 2023. July (+6.5 hours) and September (+7.8 hours) saw some of the longest waiting times in the past 24 months, however this increase is more likely attributable to labor action by port workers than the Red Sea crisis. 

Among major European ports, Antwerp appears to have absorbed the impact of the crisis the best. While congestion was recorded above prior year levels in nine of twelve months since the onset of the crisis, only June (+5.1 hours) saw an increase in average wait times of more than 2 hours. 

In Southern Europe, congestion in Valencia has exceeded prior year levels in every month since the onset of the crisis. While the impact was moderate over the first six months with increases averaging 1.8 hours, congestion has surged since May with waiting times averaging 5.7 hours longer than 2023 levels. 

In Europe, Piraeus seems to have struggled most with congestion despite container volumes decreasing by 10.1% in the first half of the year. The early months of the crisis saw waiting times average 6.5 hours longer in November, 10.4 hours in December and 3.8 hours in January. While showing improvement over the spring, congestion is again worsening with September congestion levels 8.4 hours longer than the year prior. 

Asian Ports 

In Shanghai at the world’s busiest container port, congestion levels have been higher than previous year levels in 11 of the 12 months since the onset of the crisis with an average increase in anchor times of 4.7 hours and a peak increase of 10.1 hours in February. 

Ningbo saw the opposite trend of Antwerp and Hamburg whereby the first six months of the crisis saw anchor times surge by an average of 6.6 hours compared to prior year levels. Since May, however, congestion has greatly improved and is trending 5.2 hours below 2023 levels.

As has been well reported, Singapore has also struggled with congestion since the onset of the crisis with the port reporting increased anchor times averaging 3.6 hours across the first 10 months of the crisis. September and October have, however, seen congestion dip below 2023 levels in a promising sign of recovery. 

Port Kelang, the second busiest container port in Southeast Asia, has seen average wait times hold relatively constant compared to the prior year. November (+1.7 hours), June (+20.5 hours) and July (+7.0 hours) were the only months since the onset of the crisis to record average vessel wait times more than an hour longer than prior year levels. Elevated congestion levels in June and July are likely related to the port having seen an influx of ships diverting away from Singapore.

In the Middle East, Jebel Ali saw little impact in the first months of the crisis, with December and January anchor times averaging below the prior year by approximately 2.5 hours. However, congestion surged in the spring with wait times peaking at 29.3 hours longer than 2022 levels in May. Elevated congestion levels from March through May have been attributed to a combination of changes in shipping routes as a result of the Red Sea crisis and catastrophic flooding in Dubai. The past three months have seen congestion return to prior year levels.

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